Input data set: Future Wood harvesting (group III)

Future annual country-level and 0.5° gridded wood harvesting and harvested area fractions covering the period 2015-2099, based on the LUH2 v2.1f Harmonization Data Set (see Hurtt et al. 2011; Hurtt et al. 2020; https://luh.umd.edu) and harmonized with MAgPIE and IMAGE land-use allocation models for the transition from historical data. 1850soc and 2015soc contain time series constant over time by replicating the scenario-specific year. For the 'noadapt' experiments, the data are still based on varying direct human forcings in the future period according to the SSP scenario, but do not take into account the impacts of climate change under a specific RCP.

Gridded data was created with first order conservative remapping while country-level data was aggregated on LUH2s native 0.25° grid using a matching fractional country mask.

- Variables:
wood harvest area from primary forest land (primf-harv)
wood harvest area from primary non forest land (primn-harv)
wood harvest area from secondary mature forest land (secmf-harv)
wood harvest area from secondary young forest land (secyf-harv)
wood harvest area from secondary non forest land (secnf-harv)
wood harvest biomass carbon from primary forest land (primf-bioh)
wood harvest biomass carbon from primary non forest land (primn-bioh)
wood harvest biomass carbon from secondary mature forest land (secmf-bioh)
wood harvest biomass carbon from secondary young forest land (secyf-bioh)
wood harvest biomass carbon from secondary non forest land (secnf-bioh)

Future projections are based on the land-use models IMAGE and MAgPIE provided by information about bioenergy demand and required CO2 removal from the atmosphere by afforestation and global gridded crop models in combination with PIKs in-house IAMs providing information about crop yields, water availability and terrestrial carbon content in vegetation, soils and litter.

LU patterns arise from SSP specific dynamics (population growth and economic development e.g. changing food demand) and interactions with climate change mitigation measures (ISIMIP3b, group II, no adaptation). For the ISIMIP3b, group III adaptation set-up the land use patterns are additionally adjusted in response to climate change impacts on crop yields, water availability and natural carbon sinks and others. The LU patterns are a dynamic outcome from the models as well as food demand, production and trade while the modelling systems are externally forced by SSP specific population changes, economic development (GDP pathways) and mitigation requirements, i.e. RCP-based global warming pathways.

Both land use models are designed to generate cost-optimal land use patterns fulfilling the given demands allowing for technological progress increasing crop yields or expanding agricultural land areas.

In the ‘no-adaptation’ scenarios, patterns of potential crop yields are derived from simulated crop yield distributions assuming present-day climate conditions and calibrated to match observed national yields on today’s agricultural land, and crop yields change in the future due to technological progress, changes in agricultural management (e.g. fertilizer inputs and irrigation) and changes in agricultural areas.

In the adaptation set-up LU changes additionally account for changes in potential crop yields, water availability, and terrestrial carbon content induced by climate change and changes in atmospheric CO2.

Slighly diffenent results are to be expected when aggregating gridded to national data because of the involvement of remapping when going from LUH2's 0.25° to ISIMIP's 0.5 degree grid.

For ISIMIP participants, these files are available for download from DKRZ using the path /work/bb0820/ISIMIP/ISIMIP3b/InputData/socioeconomic/wood_harvesting/